AGP Executive Report

Gas & Connectivity: North Macedonia’s NOMAGAS and Serbia’s Transportgas Serbia joined Bulgartransgaz’s Vertical Corridor gas initiative, extending the route across Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Moldova, North Macedonia and Serbia to boost supply security and bidirectional capacity. Rail & Food Exports: Ukraine’s rail freight operator says Moldova’s CFM blocked grain transfers at Kuchurgan, forcing rerouting via other Ukraine–Moldova border crossings and adjusting freight charges—highlighting pressure points in the “Solidarity Routes” setup. EU Accession Push: Lithuania’s foreign minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius will seek to open remaining Moldova negotiation clusters before its EU Council presidency starts Jan 1, 2027, with Moldova’s deputy PM Mihai Popșoi calling it a key window for faster integration. Agriculture Trade Rules: Parliament approved a provisional licensing regime for grain and oilseed imports until Oct 31, while MPs clash over whether the temporary rules protect local farmers or favor large exporters and input suppliers. Energy Resilience: Moldova’s regulator ANRE recalculated 2026–2027 winter gas storage, raising Transnistria volumes and setting a stockpile deadline of Nov 1; SIS chief Musteață warned of a more intense winter amid Russian attacks and high energy costs. Finance & Jobs: The 2026 social insurances budget was revised upward by 1.37 billion lei, and public sector staff earning up to 20,000 lei will get one-time allowances up to 4,000 lei; Moldova also moved ahead with a new Moldova International Stock Exchange, licensed for an unlimited term.

Logistics & Food Security: Ukraine is pushing “Odesa Triangle” routing to keep exports flowing via Moldova to Romania’s Constanța port, with 1.5M tons already moved in seven months and plans to lift volumes further. Agriculture & Imports: Moldova is tightening the rules for grain and oilseed imports with a 60-day licensing push, while MPs accuse the government of favoring big exporters and input suppliers. Agri-Processing: Moldova’s apple harvest is forecast at about 526,000 tons, with processors ready to handle a record volume as daily intake capacity and delivery timing shape output. Energy Resilience: ANRE set 140.35M cubic metres of gas storage for the 2026–2027 winter and raised Transnistria storage volumes, as market reforms shift more consumers to free-market supply. Capital Markets: Moldova’s new Moldova International Stock Exchange cleared a key step with an unlimited-term operator licence, with Bucharest Stock Exchange involvement. Investment Framework: Parliament advanced a draft law creating a “strategic investment” regime with state-backed agreements for large projects in priority sectors. Security & Winter Risk: SIS warns of a more intense winter amid Russian attacks and cross-border energy interdependence. Transport & Industry Disruption: Romania’s Cernavodă nuclear shutdown risked by Danube drought is flagged as a wider regional industrial shock. Border Infrastructure Under Fire: Ukraine reports strikes damaging crossings near Moldova and Romania, with rapid emergency repairs and plans for mobile infrastructure reserves. EU Integration & Governance: Moldova continues aligning legislation with EU rules and moves ahead on harmonizing the tax regime for Transnistrian businesses.

Energy Security: Moldova’s regulator ANRE reallocated gas storage for the 2026–2027 winter to 140.35 million m³ (due by 1 Nov) and raised the Transnistria obligation to 135.972 million m³, reflecting market reforms since 1 April. Budget & Cost of Living: Parliament Speaker Igor Grosu called the 2026 deficit above 23 billion lei “manageable” after a budget revision that boosts spending for social support, salaries, local infrastructure and the Road Fund. Winter Preparedness: SIS chief Alexandru Musteata warned of a “more intense” winter as Russian strikes and energy risks near the Moldovan-Ukrainian border continue. Strategic Investment Rules: Parliament backed in first reading a new Law on Investments creating a clearer regime for strategic projects to make conditions more predictable for local and foreign investors. Agriculture Trade Controls: MPs supported a 60-day licensing scheme for cereal and oilseed imports to protect domestic producers, with a free application process and oversight by multiple agencies. Logistics & Exports: Railway of Moldova moved 46,500+ tons of export and transit goods in August, led by rapeseed, oilseeds and wheat. EU Integration & Digital Services: Moldova’s banks began integrating the government EVO digital ID wallet for identity verification, aiming to scale from 20 services to 200 next year. Foreign Cooperation: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan met Denmark’s ambassador on investment and economic cooperation, with a focus on IT, agriculture, agri-food and green energy.

Agribusiness Support: Moldova financed 769 small agricultural businesses under the FCA program (Mar–Aug), refinancing 655.65 million lei at a fixed 5.1% rate, with 65.68 million lei tied to grants; more FCA loans and grants remain available until year-end. Trade & Food Security: Moldova may temporarily license imports of cereal and oilseed crops until Oct. 31, 2026, aiming to protect domestic producers while keeping supply flowing. EU Integration & Digital Services: The government advanced EU legislation harmonization and pushed forward digital ID wallets—Moldova’s EVO wallet is already integrated by FinComBank and Moldindconbank, with plans to scale from 20 services to 200 next year. Energy Costs: Energocom reports natural gas prices rising to 74.35 euros/MWh amid tighter global LNG supply and low European storage; the government also approved 550 million lei for cold-season energy compensation. Logistics & Exports: Railway of Moldova moved 46,500+ tons of export and transit goods in August, led by rapeseed, oilseed crops, wheat and peas. Local Governance Reform: 63% of mayors’ offices opted for voluntary amalgamation; incentives are planned at about 4.5 billion lei. Anti-Corruption: CNA and prosecutors conducted searches linked to the consumer protection inspectorate.

EU-aligned policy push: Moldova’s cabinet backed a framework to harmonize national legislation with EU rules and added cold-season energy support, while the reintegration deputy PM said tax-regime harmonization with Transnistria will continue toward a single system by 2030. Digital services: Europe’s digital ID wallets are moving from pilots to rollout; in Moldova, FinComBank and Moldindconbank have started using the government’s EVO wallet, with plans to expand services fast. Energy costs: Energocom says natural gas prices keep climbing on the European exchange, driven by supply risks and low storage levels. Agri-logistics: Railway of Moldova reported 46,500+ tons of export and transit cargo in August, led by rapeseed, wheat and peas. Consumer & compliance: Moldova’s anticorruption prosecutors and the CNA carried out searches tied to the consumer protection inspectorate. Local governance reform: 63% of mayors’ offices opted for voluntary amalgamation, with incentives planned. Trade & tax integration: Moldova started applying VAT and excise duties to goods from Transnistrian businesses, beginning with alcohol, tobacco, perfumes and more. Business support: ODA opened September grant calls worth 61+ million lei for SMEs, women’s entrepreneurship, digital innovation and value-chain upgrades.

Energy Policy: Moldova earmarks 550 million lei for 2026 energy compensations for the cold season, with beneficiary criteria to be adjusted toward families who need help most. Logistics & Expansion: Nova Post enters Canada, processes 3,000+ shipments so far, and plans further network growth plus a franchise model. EU Integration Diplomacy: Deputy PM/Foreign Minister Mihai Popșoi meets Ukraine’s Andrii Sybiha in Chisinau, discussing EU negotiation clusters and joint energy and infrastructure projects. Anti-Corruption: Moldova’s CNA and anti-corruption prosecutors conduct searches tied to the consumer protection inspectorate, targeting officials under investigation. Local Governance Reform: 63% of mayors’ offices choose voluntary amalgamation; the government promises incentives worth about 4.5 billion lei. Tax & Trade (Transnistria): Moldova starts applying VAT and excise duties from Sept. 1 to selected goods imported by Transnistrian businesses, aiming for uniform rules across the Dniester. Labor Market: Over 10,000 undeclared workers were identified in 2026, with informality falling in agriculture and construction. Food & Exports: Moldovan wine producers promote in the Netherlands via the “Buy Diaspora” programme, linking small producers with Dutch buyers.

VAT & Excise Integration: Moldova starts applying VAT and excise duties from Sept 1 on imports brought in by Transnistrian-region businesses, first covering alcohol, tobacco/nicotine, perfumes, pyrotechnics, jewelry/precious stones and some vehicles, with broader categories from Jan 1. Labour Crackdown: Authorities identified 10,140 undeclared workers in 2026; informality is down to 17.3% (from 23.0% in 2023), with the biggest drops in agriculture and construction. SME Grants: Moldova-based companies can apply for non-reimbursable funding calls with over 61 million lei available for September via ODA (women’s entrepreneurship, small producers, digital/tech startups, value-chain competitiveness, and energy-efficiency modernization). Agri-Food Watch: ANSA detected the quarantine pest grapevine flavescence dorée phytoplasma in multiple vineyards and launched eradication/control steps. Export & Processing: A plum grower in Ialoveni expands orchard and processing capacity with IFAD support, adding cold storage and drying throughput. Industry & Energy: Premier Energy reports 27% y/y growth in normalised EBITDA in H1, while Vetropack completes furnace dismantling at St-Prex, shifting the site into decommissioning and materials recovery. Security Spillover: A drone with explosives was found in eastern Romania about 30 km from Moldova’s border; Romania and Estonia also reported drone incursions amid regional alerts. Diplomacy & Connectivity: Romania reiterates support for Moldova’s EU path and energy interconnection projects as it pushes connectivity and “energy blackmail” endgame. Local Business: Moldova’s “Buy Diaspora” wine push lands in the Netherlands, linking small producers with Dutch buyers and partners.

VAT & Excise Integration: Moldova starts applying VAT and excise duties from Sept 1 to goods imported by Transnistrian-based businesses, covering alcohol, tobacco/nicotine, perfumes, pyrotechnics, furs, jewelry and precious stones, plus some transport items—aimed at equalizing tax treatment across both banks and funding support for residents. Labour Market Crackdown: Authorities identified 10,140 undeclared workers in 2026; 6,722 have already been legally employed, with informality falling from 23.0% (2023) to 17.3% (2025), especially in agriculture and construction. Agribusiness & Plant Health: An IFAD-backed plum grower in Ulmu expanded orchards and processing capacity; meanwhile ANSA detected grapevine flavescence dorée phytoplasma in vineyards and launched eradication/control steps. Energy & Industry Signals: Premier Energy reported 27% y/y growth in normalised EBITDA in H1, while Vetropack completed dismantling of furnace 21 at St-Prex, shifting the site further into decommissioning and materials recovery. Security With Economic Impact: Moldova-linked regional air alerts and drone incursions continue, including a Russia strike on a border crossing between Ukraine and Romania.

Defence & Security: NATO’s deputy chief from Moldova said Europe’s defence spending hikes are a “rational” response to Russia’s war and hybrid attacks, as EU defence ministers met in Ireland. Energy Connectivity: Romania’s foreign minister and senate leadership pushed faster transport and energy links to end Moldova’s “energy blackmail,” while Romania also extended its energy crisis regime. Food & Shipping: Turkey is drafting a new plan to restore safe grain transport through the Black Sea, aiming for a mechanism like the 2022–23 grain corridor. Agri-Food Growth: A Moldovan plum grower expanded orchards and processing with IFAD support, adding cold storage and drying capacity. Plant Health: Moldova detected the grapevine flavescence dorée phytoplasma and launched eradication/control steps to protect vineyards. Local Industry Spotlight: The Sorintex mobile textile export cluster showcased its garment/export cooperation model at Produs Autohton. Budget Pressure: Moldova’s 2026 state budget deficit is set to rise to 23.07bn lei, driven by higher debt service, social costs, and less grant aid. Cross-border Politics: Moldova protested Russia’s plan to open extra Duma polling stations in Transnistria without Chisinau’s consent. EU Referendum Noise (Context): Iceland rejected restarting EU accession talks, with fisheries control a key driver.

Black Sea Trade Pressure: Ukraine’s grain exports are taking a hit as port blockades and wider shipping disruptions raise fears of a broader crisis for farm incomes and the domestic market. Energy Watch: Romania extended its energy crisis regime for another month, citing ongoing Danube hydrology limits and weaker wind/solar output—while Moldova’s energy and hydrology alert states were also extended, keeping winter supply planning front and center. Moldova Security & Governance: Moldova’s Foreign Ministry condemned Russia’s plan to open 16 extra polling stations in Transnistria for the Russian Duma vote, stressing sovereignty and requiring prior consent. Agri-Food & Markets: Inside Moldova, grain and oilseed trading remains sluggish, with transport costs heavily shaping prices; meanwhile, VAT/excise policy changes and diesel tax adjustments are being discussed as levers that affect farmers and processing margins. Drones & Logistics Growth: Moldova approved new drone/U-space rules to enable safer commercial operations and coordination with air traffic. Local Industry Spotlight: “Local Product 2026” drew 300+ producers, including a record-setting 9.2-meter sour cherry pie from Milina Bakery.

EU Enlargement Shock (Iceland): Iceland voted 52.8% to 47.2% against restarting EU accession talks, mainly driven by fears over sovereignty and control of fisheries and agriculture—leaving Brussels with another setback just as it tries to revive enlargement. Moldova Budget Pressure: Moldova’s 2026 state budget deficit is set to rise to 23.07 billion lei, up 2.17 billion lei, as spending climbs (debt service, social obligations, and lower grant aid). Food & Consumer Rules: Moldova’s food safety authority reiterates that mandatory food labeling must be in Romanian, including for imports. Agri-Food & Markets: Dessert plum wholesale prices fell to 6–9 lei/kg in late August as demand stayed weak abroad, while domestic activity slowed. Energy & Infrastructure: Moldova is preparing for winter with tighter energy/hydrology alert measures and is also moving to align fuel and tax policy with EU rates. Drones & Logistics: New U-space drone rules aim to expand commercial drone services safely, supporting growth in logistics and related operations. Local Industry Spotlight: Moldova’s “Local Product 2026” exhibition drew 300+ producers, including a record 9.2-meter sour cherry pie in Chișinău.

Energy & Fuel Supply: Moldova says it has imported over 7,000 tons of fuel in two days and that stock levels should keep filling stations supplied as the country manages an extended energy alert. Tax & Agriculture Costs: The Ministry of Finance explains VAT and diesel excise changes for farmers, while Moldova also moves to standardize tax rules for goods imported by Transnistrian economic agents from 1 September (phased by product type). New Drone Rules for Business: Moldova approved U-space drone regulations to expand safe commercial drone operations and coordination with air traffic. Agri-Food & Local Industry Push: Over 300 Moldovan companies showcased products at “Local Product 2026,” and the new agriculture minister flags “smart agriculture” and agri-food industry development as priorities. Jobs & Labor Market: ANOFM reports 4,851 unemployed people found jobs since the start of 2026, with agriculture and services among the main hiring sectors. Security & Trade Logistics: Moldova and Ukraine agreed to keep Dniester water flow at 60 m³/s for two weeks, with knock-on effects for water supply and power generation. Governance & EU Path: Parliament’s next session starts 1 September, with EU law harmonization set as a key focus.

Sanctions-Evasion Finance: Ilan Shor is reportedly at the center of a Russia-linked crypto payments network built to move money around Western restrictions, marking a sharp shift from Moldova’s banking scandal days. Security & Airspace: Moldova approved new drone rules for U-space, aiming to coordinate unmanned flights safely as commercial drone services expand. Energy Crunch Watch: Europe’s gas stocks are heading into winter at a 13-year low, raising the odds of price swings if injection rates don’t improve. Customs & Nuclear Safety: Moldova is modernizing how it detects illicit radioactive materials at the border, with new tools, risk-analysis methods, and specialist training. Agri-Food Policy: The Finance Ministry explained VAT and diesel excise changes for farmers and processing, while ANSA reminded food businesses that labels must be in Romanian. Local Producers Push: “Local Product 2026” drew 300+ companies, including a record 9.2m sour cherry pie in Chișinău, as plum prices soften amid weak foreign demand. Jobs Snapshot: ANOFM reports 4,851 unemployed people found work since the start of 2026, with agriculture, services, and trade among the biggest hiring areas. Governance & EU Track: Parliament’s autumn session starts Sept 1, with EU law harmonization as a top priority, alongside a plan to standardize VAT/excise rules for goods imported from Transnistria.

Aviation & Drones: Moldova approved new U-space drone rules to expand commercial drone services safely, setting procedures for operators and U-space providers, including drone identification, flight-area verification, authorization, and alerts to nearby aircraft. Energy & Utilities: Electricity and gas meters will be inspected less frequently, moving closer to EU practice; the Ministry of Energy says this can cut costs for distribution operators and consumers. Budget & State Assets: The 2026 state budget deficit is set to rise to 23.07 billion lei, with higher VAT, income tax and excise collections offset by lower grant revenues; meanwhile, the government is proposing to liquidate eight inactive state-owned enterprises. Agriculture & Food Industry: New Agriculture Minister Eugeniu Osmochescu made EU integration, smart farming and agri-food development priorities, while UNDP support will back expansion of the farmer registry. Tax & Business Climate: Moldova will standardize VAT/excise rules for goods imported by Transnistrian economic agents in phased steps from September 2026, and the zero tax rate on undistributed profits is extended briefly; new economy minister Claudiu Năsui is tasked with investment and deregulation. Local Industry Showcase: Over 300 Moldovan manufacturers took part in the “Local Product 2026” exhibition at Moldexpo, with officials urging less bureaucracy and more export focus. Water & Logistics: Moldova and Ukraine agreed to keep Dniester flow at 60 m³/s for the next two weeks to protect water supply and hydropower operations.

Energy Regulation: Moldova will inspect gas and electricity meters less often, aligning with EU practice (currently 4–8 years locally vs 15 years in the EU), with the Ministry of Energy citing low deviation rates and potential savings for operators and consumers. Agri-Food & EU Integration: New Agriculture Minister Eugeniu Osmochescu made smart farming and irrigation priorities, while also pushing EU acquis transposition and a more efficient subsidy system to boost the agri-food value chain. New Cabinet Focus: Economy Minister Claudiu Năsui and Osmochescu were sworn in, with Prime Minister Vasile Tofan stressing a “European economy” and a more efficient state, including less bureaucracy for business. Tax & Trade Rules: Moldova will standardize VAT/excise for goods imported by Transnistrian economic operators, starting 1 September 2026 for key consumer goods, then expanding in phases. Local Production Push: Over 300 Moldovan manufacturers showcased at “Local Product 2026” at Moldexpo, with officials urging entrepreneurs to export and flag red tape. Water & Power Security: Moldova and Ukraine agreed to keep Dniester flow at 60 m³/s for two weeks to protect water supply and hydropower operations amid drought. Independence & Industry Diplomacy: Romania’s Nicușor Dan joined Moldova’s Independence Day events and reiterated energy and security cooperation with Chisinau and the region. Cyber Risk: Russian-linked BlueDelta used HOOKEDGE malware to target defense and diplomatic organizations across Europe, including Moldova-related lures.

Energy Security: Romania’s President Nicușor Dan says the shutdown of the Cernavoda power plant won’t jeopardize electricity support for Moldova, citing regional market interconnections with Ukraine and Bulgaria and saying the risk of industrial disconnections is “very low.” Regional Cooperation: At Moldova’s 35th Independence Day, leaders Maia Sandu, Volodymyr Zelensky and Nicușor Dan pushed deeper ties on energy, infrastructure, logistics and security, with Romania backing rapid opening of EU negotiation clusters for Moldova and Ukraine. Airspace Pressure: Moldova reported multiple Russian drone incursions during the latest attacks on Ukraine, while Sandu and Dan stressed stronger airspace protection and resilience. Parliament & EU Alignment: Moldova’s Parliament begins its fall session, with harmonizing national laws with EU rules as a priority, and officials note further negotiation clusters will open as criteria are met. Labour Policy: A 2026–2030 action plan aims to expand collective bargaining coverage, focusing on construction, HoReCa and agriculture, plus incentives for unions and employer associations. Government Shake-up: New ministers Claudiu Năsui (Economy, Digitalization) and Eugeniu Osmochescu (Agriculture) were sworn in, with Prime Minister Vasile Tofan framing reforms around faster, less bureaucratic growth. Maritime Risk: Romania probes the cause of a Black Sea merchant ship sinking after a fire, with all 12 crew rescued.